Imst 4–1 Rot-Weiß Rankweil: Result & Stats

Imst

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

9/30/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 10Velly Arena Imst

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Imst64%

×Draw17%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImstExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Rankweil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.42

Imst

2.70

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.42

Imst creates 90% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 52 away

2.39

creates per match

1.79

1.04

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Imst

2.39

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.79

allows per match

Imst

1.04

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imst+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imst ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Imst or draw

81%

Imst or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

83%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

36%

Winning margin

Imst wins by 2+

43%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Imst 1+ goals

93%

Imst 2+ goals

75%

Imst 3+ goals

50%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

76%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

41%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Imst (draw refunded)

77%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imst at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.04 · 46 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imst attack 2.39 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Imst defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Imst scores more

64%

level

17%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

19%

Imst at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Imst will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff