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Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs Dornbirner SV — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
FT
1 – 2
Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
6/7/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 26Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil24%
×Draw22%
Dornbirner SV54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.26
Dornbirner SV
1.98

Dornbirner SV creates 57% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 25 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.00
Dornbirner SV
1.96

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
2.00
Dornbirner SV
1.52

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par
Dornbirner SV+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

Dornbirner SV →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw
46%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil or Dornbirner SV
78%
Draw or Dornbirner SV
76%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
10%
Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
72%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
36%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
13%
Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
86%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
59%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
31%
Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Dornbirner SV away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.52 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.00 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.26

Dornbirner SV attack 1.96 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
24%
level
22%
Dornbirner SV scores more
54%

Dornbirner SV at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Dornbirner SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1 – 2 Dornbirner SV

Dornbirner SV beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on June 7, 2025.

The match was played at Gastrastadion in Rankweil.