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Dornbirner SV vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Regionalliga - West 2018

Dornbirner SV
Dornbirner SV
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
5/29/2024Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 28EMMA & EUGEN Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Dornbirner SV48%
×Draw20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dornbirner SV
2.31
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.86

Dornbirner SV creates 24% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 52 away

creates per match

Dornbirner SV
1.61
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.79

allows per match

Dornbirner SV
1.94
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.00

finishing

Dornbirner SV+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Over
  • Over78
  • Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirner SV ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
92%8%2.5
78%22%3.5
59%41%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Dornbirner SV or draw
68%
Dornbirner SV or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
80%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
52%

Winning margin

Dornbirner SV wins by 2+
29%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Dornbirner SV 1+ goals
90%
Dornbirner SV 2+ goals
67%
Dornbirner SV 3+ goals
40%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
84%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
55%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Dornbirner SV (draw refunded)
60%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
69%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirner SV at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.94 · 51 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirner SV attack 1.61 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.31

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Dornbirner SV defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Dornbirner SV scores more
48%
level
20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
32%

Dornbirner SV at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Dornbirner SV will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dornbirner SV vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Dornbirner SV beat Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3-2 in Regionalliga - West on May 29, 2024.

The match was played at EMMA & EUGEN Arena in Dornbirn.