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Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs Blau-Weiß Feldkirch — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
5/10/2025Landesliga - VorarlbergligaLandesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 21Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil37%
×Draw22%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.72
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
1.81

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 57 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.00
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
1.63

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil
2.00
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
2.44

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw
59%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil or Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
78%
Draw or Blau-Weiß Feldkirch
63%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
19%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
82%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
51%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
25%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 1+ goals
84%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 2+ goals
54%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
48%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch away — creates 1.63, concedes 2.44 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.00 + Blau-Weiß Feldkirch defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 1.72

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch attack 1.63 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
37%
level
22%
Blau-Weiß Feldkirch scores more
41%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Feldkirch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga: Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1–1 Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

Rot-Weiß Rankweil and Blau-Weiß Feldkirch drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Gastrastadion in Rankweil.