Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 1–1 Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

FT

1 – 1

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

9/28/2024

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 8FBF Waldstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch51%

×Draw20%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Blau-Weiß FeldkirchExpected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Rankweil

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.38

1.77

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

2.38

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.77

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch creates 34% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 13 away

1.54

creates per match

1.62

1.92

allows per match

3.23

creates per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.54

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.62

allows per match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch

1.92

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

3.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or draw

71%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

80%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil

49%

Winning margin

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch wins by 2+

31%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 1+ goals

91%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 2+ goals

68%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch 3+ goals

42%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

83%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

53%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch (draw refunded)

64%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.92 · 59 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.62, concedes 3.23 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch attack 1.54 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.23 → ÷2 → 2.38

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.62 + Blau-Weiß Feldkirch defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch scores more

51%

level

20%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

29%

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Blau-Weiß Feldkirch will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch and Rot-Weiß Rankweil drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga on September 28, 2024.

The match was played at FBF Waldstadion in Feldkirch.

Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Blau-Weiß Feldkirch vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil