Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs Austria Lustenau II — Regionalliga - West 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 25+ matches
Rot-Weiß Rankweil47%
Austria Lustenau II32%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rot-Weiß Rankweil creates 23% more chances
Season form · 51 home / 25 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over75
- Under25
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes73
- No27
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓
Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.92, concedes 2.41 · 51 matches
Austria Lustenau II away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.40 · 25 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.92 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 2.16
Austria Lustenau II attack 1.08 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 1.75
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 47%?"
Rot-Weiß Rankweil at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 47% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Rankweil will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
Head to Head
Wacker Innsbruck
Kuchl
Imst
Seekirchen
Dornbirn
Bischofshofen
Hohenems
Kitzbühel
SVG Reichenau
Schwaz
Wals-Grünau
Lustenau
TSV St. Johann
Pinzgau Saalfelden
Rheindorf Altach II
Kufstein
LauterachIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Rot-Weiß Rankweil host Austria Lustenau II on Saturday, 10 October 2020 at 13:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - West 2018/2019 season.
Rot-Weiß Rankweil vs Austria Lustenau II — Match Preview
Rot-Weiß Rankweil face Austria Lustenau II on October 10, 2020 in this Regionalliga - West fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.
Rot-Weiß Rankweil host Austria Lustenau II at Gastrastadion.
Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.