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Austria Lustenau II vs Rot-Weiß Rankweil — Regionalliga - West 2018

Austria Lustenau II
Austria Lustenau II
CANC
00:00
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
5/1/2021Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Vorarlberg - 2nd Phase - 7Planet Pure Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Austria Lustenau II40%
×Draw20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Lustenau II
2.26
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
2.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 52 away

creates per match

Austria Lustenau II
1.52
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
1.79

allows per match

Austria Lustenau II
2.72
Rot-Weiß Rankweil
3.00

finishing

Austria Lustenau II+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau II ↓

Rot-Weiß Rankweil →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–26%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–2 (7%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
46%54%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau II or draw
60%
Austria Lustenau II or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
80%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Rankweil
60%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau II wins by 2+
23%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau II 1+ goals
89%
Austria Lustenau II 2+ goals
66%
Austria Lustenau II 3+ goals
39%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals
89%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals
65%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals
39%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau II (draw refunded)
50%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau II at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.72 · 25 matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil away — creates 1.79, concedes 3.00 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau II attack 1.52 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.26

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.79 + Austria Lustenau II defence 2.72 → ÷2 → 2.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Austria Lustenau II scores more
40%
level
20%
Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more
40%

Austria Lustenau II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Austria Lustenau II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Austria Lustenau II face Rot-Weiß Rankweil (Regionalliga - West)

Regionalliga - West returns with Austria Lustenau II hosting Rot-Weiß Rankweil. Match starts May 1, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Austria Lustenau II host Rot-Weiß Rankweil at Planet Pure Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.