Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1–2 Admira Dornbirn

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

FT

1 – 2

Admira Dornbirn

9/22/2024

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 7Gastrastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Rot-Weiß Rankweil28%

×Draw22%

Admira Dornbirn51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß RankweilExpected goals in this matchAdmira Dornbirn

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.01

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.44

Admira Dornbirn

2.01

Admira Dornbirn creates 40% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 55 away

1.00

creates per match

2.02

2.00

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

1.00

Admira Dornbirn

2.02

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil

2.00

Admira Dornbirn

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Rankweil+0.00on par

Admira Dornbirn+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Rankweil ↓

Admira Dornbirn →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or draw

49%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil or Admira Dornbirn

78%

Draw or Admira Dornbirn

72%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Rankweil wins by 2+

12%

Admira Dornbirn wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 1+ goals

76%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 2+ goals

42%

Rot-Weiß Rankweil 3+ goals

18%

Admira Dornbirn 1+ goals

87%

Admira Dornbirn 2+ goals

59%

Admira Dornbirn 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Rankweil (draw refunded)

35%

Admira Dornbirn (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Rankweil at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 13 matches

Admira Dornbirn away — creates 2.02, concedes 1.87 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Rankweil attack 1.00 + Admira Dornbirn defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.44

Admira Dornbirn attack 2.02 + Rot-Weiß Rankweil defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rot-Weiß Rankweil scores more

28%

level

22%

Admira Dornbirn scores more

51%

Admira Dornbirn at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Admira Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff