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Rot-Weiß Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue — League #80 2026

Rot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen
FT
4 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
4/12/2025League #80League #80 · Round 33Stadion an der Hafenstraße

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Rot-Weiß Essen56%
×Draw18%
Erzgebirge Aue26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Essen
2.75
Erzgebirge Aue
1.88

Rot-Weiß Essen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Essen
2.75
Erzgebirge Aue
2.25

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Essen
1.50
Erzgebirge Aue
2.75

finishing

Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par
Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

79%Yes
  • Yes79
  • No21

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Essen ↓

Erzgebirge Aue →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–17%
3–26%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–24%
4–33%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (7%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Essen or draw
74%
Rot-Weiß Essen or Erzgebirge Aue
82%
Draw or Erzgebirge Aue
44%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+
36%
Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals
93%
Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals
75%
Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals
51%
Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals
85%
Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals
56%
Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)
68%
Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
74%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Essen at home — creates 2.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Erzgebirge Aue away — creates 2.25, concedes 2.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 2.75 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.75

Erzgebirge Aue attack 2.25 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Rot-Weiß Essen scores more
56%
level
18%
Erzgebirge Aue scores more
26%

Rot-Weiß Essen at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Rot-Weiß Essen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Essen vs Erzgebirge Aue

Rot-Weiß Essen beat Erzgebirge Aue 4-2 in League #80 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion an der Hafenstraße in Essen.