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Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiß Essen — League #80 2026

Erzgebirge Aue
Erzgebirge Aue
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rot-Weiß Essen
Rot-Weiß Essen
10/5/2025League #80League #80 · Round 10Erzgebirgsstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Erzgebirge Aue50%
×Draw22%
Rot-Weiß Essen28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Erzgebirge Aue
2.04
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.50

Erzgebirge Aue creates 36% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Erzgebirge Aue
2.50
Rot-Weiß Essen
2.00

allows per match

Erzgebirge Aue
1.00
Rot-Weiß Essen
1.57

finishing

Erzgebirge Aue+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Essen+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Erzgebirge Aue ↓

Rot-Weiß Essen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Erzgebirge Aue or draw
72%
Erzgebirge Aue or Rot-Weiß Essen
78%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Essen
50%

Winning margin

Erzgebirge Aue wins by 2+
29%
Rot-Weiß Essen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Erzgebirge Aue 1+ goals
87%
Erzgebirge Aue 2+ goals
60%
Erzgebirge Aue 3+ goals
33%
Rot-Weiß Essen 1+ goals
78%
Rot-Weiß Essen 2+ goals
44%
Rot-Weiß Essen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Erzgebirge Aue (draw refunded)
64%
Rot-Weiß Essen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Erzgebirge Aue at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Rot-Weiß Essen away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Erzgebirge Aue attack 2.50 + Rot-Weiß Essen defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 2.04

Rot-Weiß Essen attack 2.00 + Erzgebirge Aue defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Erzgebirge Aue scores more
50%
level
22%
Rot-Weiß Essen scores more
28%

Erzgebirge Aue at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Erzgebirge Aue will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Erzgebirge Aue vs Rot-Weiß Essen

Erzgebirge Aue and Rot-Weiß Essen drew 2-2 in League #80 on October 5, 2025.

The match was played at Erzgebirgsstadion in Aue.