Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2–2 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Eintracht Braunsch U19

A. Stephan 83'

S. Chentoufi 54'

A. Awali 18'

J. Gille 11'

12/7/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 14Kunstrasen Wustrower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1929%

×Draw20%

Eintracht Braunsch U1951%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19Expected goals in this matchEintracht Braunsch U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

2.26

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

1.66

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.26

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 55 away

0.81

creates per match

1.38

3.15

allows per match

2.51

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

0.81

Eintracht Braunsch U19

1.38

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

3.15

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Eintracht Braunsch U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–15%

0–25%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–44%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw

49%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Eintracht Braunsch U19

80%

Draw or Eintracht Braunsch U19

71%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+

14%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

31%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals

81%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals

49%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals

23%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

89%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

66%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

39%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Eintracht Braunsch U19 away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.51 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 1.66

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 1.38 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more

29%

level

20%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

51%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

J. Gille

18'

A. Awali

32'

A. Meier← Y. Mohammed

32'

S. Chentoufi← M. Kponton

54'

S. Chentoufi

60'

Karim Hassanin← J. Gille

60'

N. Gambke← B. Redecker

60'

S. Dabrowski← A. Aksac

62'

C. Kaba← D. Rank

78'

M. Gehring← A. Awali

83'

A. Stephan

Rot-Weiß

Eintracht

⚽

▼

Gille

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: T. Kost

32'▲A. Meier←▼Y. Mohammed

32'▲S. Chentoufi←▼M. Kponton

62'▲C. Kaba←▼D. Rank

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 substitutes

MeierChentoufiKabaMensahMiethe

Manager: C. Menzel

60'▲Karim Hassanin←▼J. Gille

60'▲N. Gambke←▼B. Redecker

60'▲S. Dabrowski←▼A. Aksac

78'▲M. Gehring←▼A. Awali

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

HassaninGambkeDabrowskiGehringPeters

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2–2 Eintracht Braunsch U19

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 and Eintracht Braunsch U19 drew 2-2 in U19 Bundesliga on December 7, 2024.

Goals: J. Gille (11'), A. Awali (18'), S. Chentoufi (54'), A. Stephan (83').

The match was played at Kunstrasen Wustrower Weg in Erfurt.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Eintracht Braunsch U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

U19 Bundesliga: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2–2 Eintracht Braunsch U19