Eintracht Braunsch U19 1–2 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Eintracht Braunsch U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

B. Fuchs 59'

M. Kponton 51', 45+1'

9/21/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7Stadion NLZ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Eintracht Braunsch U1955%

×Draw19%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Eintracht Braunsch U19Expected goals in this matchRot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

1.66

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.49

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

1.66

Eintracht Braunsch U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 26 away

2.13

creates per match

0.81

2.50

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.13

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

0.81

allows per match

Eintracht Braunsch U19

2.50

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Eintracht Braunsch U19+0.00on par

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eintracht Braunsch U19 ↓

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or draw

75%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

81%

Draw or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

45%

Winning margin

Eintracht Braunsch U19 wins by 2+

35%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Eintracht Braunsch U19 1+ goals

92%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 2+ goals

71%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 3+ goals

45%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals

81%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals

49%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Eintracht Braunsch U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

68%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at home — creates 2.13, concedes 2.50 · 54 matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eintracht Braunsch U19 attack 2.13 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.49

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Eintracht Braunsch U19 defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Eintracht Braunsch U19 scores more

55%

level

19%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more

25%

Eintracht Braunsch U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Eintracht Braunsch U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

J. Gille← N. Gambke

45+1'

M. Kponton

46'

B. Redecker← L. Marheineke

46'

E. Karepi← O. Bosacki

46'

J. Strauß← M. Hounkpati

46'

A. Stephan← C. Kobelt

51'

M. Kponton

59'

K. Yotasong← L. Laatsch

59'

B. Fuchs

66'

D. Rank← M. Kponton

72'

M. Gehring← A. Aksac

75'

A. Meier← C. Kaba

89'

L. Weigand← F. Lischewski

Eintracht

Rot-Weiß

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: C. Menzel

33'▲J. Gille←▼N. Gambke

46'▲B. Redecker←▼L. Marheineke

46'▲E. Karepi←▼O. Bosacki

46'▲J. Strauß←▼M. Hounkpati

59'▲K. Yotasong←▼L. Laatsch

72'▲M. Gehring←▼A. Aksac

Eintracht Braunsch U19 substitutes

GilleRedeckerKarepiStraußYotasongGehringPeters

Manager: T. Kost

46'▲A. Stephan←▼C. Kobelt

66'▲D. Rank←▼M. Kponton

75'▲A. Meier←▼C. Kaba

89'▲L. Weigand←▼F. Lischewski

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 substitutes

StephanRankMeierWeigandKessel