Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1–5 Bochum U19: Result & Stats

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

FT

1 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Bochum U19

11/23/2024

U19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 12Kunstrasen Wustrower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1915%

×Draw17%

Bochum U1968%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19Expected goals in this matchBochum U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

2.64

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

1.17

Bochum U19

2.64

Bochum U19 creates 126% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 67 away

0.81

creates per match

2.13

3.15

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

0.81

Bochum U19

2.13

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

3.15

Bochum U19

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Bochum U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Bochum U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–28%

0–37%

0–45%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw

32%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Bochum U19

83%

Draw or Bochum U19

85%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+

6%

Bochum U19 wins by 2+

47%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals

69%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals

33%

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals

11%

Bochum U19 1+ goals

93%

Bochum U19 2+ goals

74%

Bochum U19 3+ goals

48%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)

18%

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)

82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Bochum U19 away — creates 2.13, concedes 1.52 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Bochum U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.17

Bochum U19 attack 2.13 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more

15%

level

17%

Bochum U19 scores more

68%

Bochum U19 at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Bochum U19

Bochum U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 5-1 in U19 Bundesliga on November 23, 2024.

The match was played at Kunstrasen Wustrower Weg in Erfurt.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Bochum U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Bochum U19