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Bochum U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Bochum U19
Bochum U19
FT
9 – 0
HT: 5 – 0
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
8/25/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 5Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Bochum U1969%
×Draw17%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1914%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bochum U19
2.60
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.10

Bochum U19 creates 136% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 26 away

creates per match

Bochum U19
2.36
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81

allows per match

Bochum U19
1.39
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
2.85

finishing

Bochum U19+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bochum U19 ↓

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Bochum U19 or draw
86%
Bochum U19 or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
83%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
31%

Winning margin

Bochum U19 wins by 2+
47%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Bochum U19 1+ goals
92%
Bochum U19 2+ goals
73%
Bochum U19 3+ goals
47%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
67%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
30%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Bochum U19 (draw refunded)
83%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bochum U19 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.39 · 69 matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bochum U19 attack 2.36 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.60

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Bochum U19 defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Bochum U19 scores more
69%
level
17%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
14%

Bochum U19 at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Bochum U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

U19 Bundesliga: Bochum U19 9–0 Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Bochum U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 9-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 25, 2024.

The match was played at Nachwuchszentrum VfL Bochum in Bochum.