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Rostov U19 vs Arsenal Tula U20 — Youth Championship 2026

Rostov U19
Rostov U19
FT
4 – 0
Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
10/29/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 14Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Rostov U1950%
×Draw23%
Arsenal Tula U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostov U19
1.81
Arsenal Tula U20
1.28

Rostov U19 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 39 away

creates per match

Rostov U19
2.04
Arsenal Tula U20
1.49

allows per match

Rostov U19
1.07
Arsenal Tula U20
1.59

finishing

Rostov U19+0.00on par
Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov U19 ↓

Arsenal Tula U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rostov U19 or draw
73%
Rostov U19 or Arsenal Tula U20
77%
Draw or Arsenal Tula U20
50%

Winning margin

Rostov U19 wins by 2+
27%
Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Rostov U19 1+ goals
84%
Rostov U19 2+ goals
54%
Rostov U19 3+ goals
27%
Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
72%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
37%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rostov U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov U19 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.07 · 81 matches

Arsenal Tula U20 away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.59 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov U19 attack 2.04 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.81

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 1.49 + Rostov U19 defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rostov U19 scores more
50%
level
23%
Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
27%

Rostov U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rostov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rostov U19 vs Arsenal Tula U20

Rostov U19 beat Arsenal Tula U20 4-0 in Youth Championship on October 29, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Olimp 2 in Rostov-na-Donu.