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Arsenal Tula U20 vs Rostov U19 — Youth Championship 2026

Arsenal Tula U20
Arsenal Tula U20
FT
1 – 2
Rostov U19
Rostov U19
9/17/2021Youth ChampionshipYouth Championship · Round 9Stadion Akademii Arsenal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Arsenal Tula U2037%
×Draw22%
Rostov U1941%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arsenal Tula U20
1.70
Rostov U19
1.80

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 39 home / 77 away

creates per match

Arsenal Tula U20
2.08
Rostov U19
1.96

allows per match

Arsenal Tula U20
1.64
Rostov U19
1.32

finishing

Arsenal Tula U20+0.00on par
Rostov U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arsenal Tula U20 ↓

Rostov U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Arsenal Tula U20 or draw
59%
Arsenal Tula U20 or Rostov U19
78%
Draw or Rostov U19
63%

Winning margin

Arsenal Tula U20 wins by 2+
19%
Rostov U19 wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Arsenal Tula U20 1+ goals
82%
Arsenal Tula U20 2+ goals
51%
Arsenal Tula U20 3+ goals
24%
Rostov U19 1+ goals
83%
Rostov U19 2+ goals
54%
Rostov U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Arsenal Tula U20 (draw refunded)
47%
Rostov U19 (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arsenal Tula U20 at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.64 · 39 matches

Rostov U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.32 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arsenal Tula U20 attack 2.08 + Rostov U19 defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.70

Rostov U19 attack 1.96 + Arsenal Tula U20 defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Arsenal Tula U20 scores more
37%
level
22%
Rostov U19 scores more
41%

Rostov U19 at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rostov U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Youth Championship: Arsenal Tula U20 1–2 Rostov U19

Rostov U19 beat Arsenal Tula U20 2-1 in Youth Championship on September 17, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Arsenal in Tula.