Rostov II 1–3 Forte Taganrog: Result & Stats

Rostov II

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Forte Taganrog

5/4/2024

Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 7Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rostov II41%

×Draw26%

Forte Taganrog33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rostov IIExpected goals in this matchForte Taganrog

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.21

Rostov II

1.38

Forte Taganrog

1.21

Rostov II creates 14% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 64 away

1.63

creates per match

1.61

0.80

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Rostov II

1.63

Forte Taganrog

1.61

allows per match

Rostov II

0.80

Forte Taganrog

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rostov II+0.00on par

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov II ↓

Forte Taganrog →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rostov II or draw

67%

Rostov II or Forte Taganrog

74%

Draw or Forte Taganrog

59%

Winning margin

Rostov II wins by 2+

19%

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rostov II 1+ goals

75%

Rostov II 2+ goals

40%

Rostov II 3+ goals

16%

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

70%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

34%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rostov II (draw refunded)

55%

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.14 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov II attack 1.63 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Forte Taganrog attack 1.61 + Rostov II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rostov II scores more

41%

level

26%

Forte Taganrog scores more

33%

Rostov II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rostov II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff