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Forte Taganrog vs Rostov II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Rostov II
Rostov II
8/31/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 23Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Forte Taganrog49%
×Draw25%
Rostov II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Forte Taganrog
1.64
Rostov II
1.14

Forte Taganrog creates 44% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 42 away

creates per match

Forte Taganrog
2.02
Rostov II
1.55

allows per match

Forte Taganrog
0.73
Rostov II
1.26

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par
Rostov II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Rostov II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw
73%
Forte Taganrog or Rostov II
75%
Draw or Rostov II
51%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
26%
Rostov II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
81%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
49%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
23%
Rostov II 1+ goals
68%
Rostov II 2+ goals
32%
Rostov II 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
65%
Rostov II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 2.02, concedes 0.73 · 63 matches

Rostov II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 2.02 + Rostov II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rostov II attack 1.55 + Forte Taganrog defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more
49%
level
25%
Rostov II scores more
27%

Forte Taganrog at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Forte Taganrog 5–1 Rostov II

Forte Taganrog beat Rostov II 5-1 in Second League - Group 1 on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Forte Arena Taganrog in Taganrog.