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Rostov II vs Alaniya Vladikavkaz II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Rostov II
Rostov II
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
8/10/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 20Stadion Olimp 2

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Rostov II66%
×Draw20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostov II
2.02
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.79

Rostov II creates 156% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 58 away

creates per match

Rostov II
1.63
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
0.78

allows per match

Rostov II
0.80
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.41

finishing

Rostov II+0.00on par
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostov II ↓

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rostov II or draw
86%
Rostov II or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
80%
Draw or Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
34%

Winning margin

Rostov II wins by 2+
41%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Rostov II 1+ goals
87%
Rostov II 2+ goals
60%
Rostov II 3+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
55%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
19%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Rostov II (draw refunded)
83%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostov II at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 41 matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostov II attack 1.63 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 0.78 + Rostov II defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Rostov II scores more
66%
level
20%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
14%

Rostov II at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Rostov II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Rostov II 1–0 Alaniya Vladikavkaz II

Rostov II beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1-0 in Second League - Group 1 on August 10, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Olimp 2 in Rostov-na-Donu.