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Alaniya Vladikavkaz II vs Rostov II — Second League - Group 1 2020

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
FT
1 – 7
HT: 0 – 3
Rostov II
Rostov II
4/14/2024Second League - Group 1Second League - Group 1 · Group 1 - 4Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 42+ matches

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II20%
×Draw20%
Rostov II59%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.19
Rostov II
2.17

Rostov II creates 82% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 42 away

creates per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
1.12
Rostov II
1.55

allows per match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II
2.78
Rostov II
1.26

finishing

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II+0.00on par
Rostov II+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II ↓

Rostov II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–28%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or draw
41%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II or Rostov II
80%
Draw or Rostov II
80%

Winning margin

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II wins by 2+
8%
Rostov II wins by 2+
37%

Team goals

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1+ goals
70%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 2+ goals
33%
Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 3+ goals
12%
Rostov II 1+ goals
89%
Rostov II 2+ goals
64%
Rostov II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II (draw refunded)
25%
Rostov II (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II at home — creates 1.12, concedes 2.78 · 58 matches

Rostov II away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.26 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II attack 1.12 + Rostov II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rostov II attack 1.55 + Alaniya Vladikavkaz II defence 2.78 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Alaniya Vladikavkaz II scores more
20%
level
20%
Rostov II scores more
59%

Rostov II at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Rostov II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 1: Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 1–7 Rostov II

Rostov II beat Alaniya Vladikavkaz II 7-1 in Second League - Group 1 on April 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Akademii Fk Alaniya in Vladikavkaz.