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Rostocker FC vs BSC Süd 05 — Oberliga - Nordost-Nord 2020

Rostocker FC
Rostocker FC
FT
2 – 0
BSC Süd 05
BSC Süd 05
8/8/2021Oberliga - Nordost-NordOberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 1Sportplatz am Damerower Weg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Rostocker FC47%
×Draw22%
BSC Süd 0531%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rostocker FC
1.88
BSC Süd 05
1.49

Rostocker FC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 21 away

creates per match

Rostocker FC
1.81
BSC Süd 05
0.76

allows per match

Rostocker FC
2.22
BSC Süd 05
1.95

finishing

Rostocker FC+0.00on par
BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rostocker FC ↓

BSC Süd 05 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Rostocker FC or draw
69%
Rostocker FC or BSC Süd 05
78%
Draw or BSC Süd 05
53%

Winning margin

Rostocker FC wins by 2+
26%
BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Rostocker FC 1+ goals
85%
Rostocker FC 2+ goals
56%
Rostocker FC 3+ goals
29%
BSC Süd 05 1+ goals
77%
BSC Süd 05 2+ goals
44%
BSC Süd 05 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)
60%
BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rostocker FC at home — creates 1.81, concedes 2.22 · 67 matches

BSC Süd 05 away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.95 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rostocker FC attack 1.81 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.76 + Rostocker FC defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rostocker FC scores more
47%
level
22%
BSC Süd 05 scores more
31%

Rostocker FC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rostocker FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord: Rostocker FC 2–0 BSC Süd 05

Rostocker FC beat BSC Süd 05 2-0 in Oberliga - Nordost-Nord on August 8, 2021.

The match was played at Sportplatz am Damerower Weg in Rostock.