BSC Süd 05 0–2 Rostocker FC: Result & Stats

BSC Süd 05

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rostocker FC

3/12/2022

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord · Nordost-Nord - 20Werner-Seelenbinder-Sportplatz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

BSC Süd 0547%

×Draw21%

Rostocker FC32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BSC Süd 05Expected goals in this matchRostocker FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.05

1.67

BSC Süd 05

2.05

Rostocker FC

1.67

BSC Süd 05 creates 23% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 67 away

0.85

creates per match

1.40

1.95

allows per match

3.25

creates per match

BSC Süd 05

0.85

Rostocker FC

1.40

allows per match

BSC Süd 05

1.95

Rostocker FC

3.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BSC Süd 05+0.00on par

Rostocker FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BSC Süd 05 ↓

Rostocker FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

BSC Süd 05 or draw

68%

BSC Süd 05 or Rostocker FC

79%

Draw or Rostocker FC

53%

Winning margin

BSC Süd 05 wins by 2+

27%

Rostocker FC wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

BSC Süd 05 1+ goals

87%

BSC Süd 05 2+ goals

61%

BSC Süd 05 3+ goals

33%

Rostocker FC 1+ goals

81%

Rostocker FC 2+ goals

50%

Rostocker FC 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

BSC Süd 05 (draw refunded)

59%

Rostocker FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BSC Süd 05 at home — creates 0.85, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

Rostocker FC away — creates 1.40, concedes 3.25 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BSC Süd 05 attack 0.85 + Rostocker FC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.05

Rostocker FC attack 1.40 + BSC Süd 05 defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

BSC Süd 05 scores more

47%

level

21%

Rostocker FC scores more

32%

BSC Süd 05 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "BSC Süd 05 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff