Ross County 0–2 Celtic: Result & Stats

Ross County

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Celtic

4/2/2023

Premiership · 1st Phase - 30Global Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Ross County22%

×Draw22%

Celtic56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ross CountyExpected goals in this matchCeltic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.88

Ross County

1.08

Celtic

1.88

Celtic creates 74% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 132 away

1.24

creates per match

2.18

1.57

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Ross County

1.24

Celtic

2.18

allows per match

Ross County

1.57

Celtic

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par

Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ross County or draw

44%

Ross County or Celtic

78%

Draw or Celtic

78%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+

8%

Celtic wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals

66%

Ross County 2+ goals

29%

Ross County 3+ goals

10%

Celtic 1+ goals

85%

Celtic 2+ goals

56%

Celtic 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)

28%

Celtic (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.57 · 95 matches

Celtic away — creates 2.18, concedes 0.92 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 1.24 + Celtic defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Celtic attack 2.18 + Ross County defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Ross County scores more

22%

level

22%

Celtic scores more

56%

Celtic at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff