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Celtic vs Ross County — Premiership 2018

Celtic
Celtic
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Ross County
Ross County
1/27/2024PremiershipPremiership · 1st Phase - 23Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Celtic72%
×Draw18%
Ross County10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Celtic
2.25
Ross County
0.72

Celtic creates 213% more chances

Season form · 134 home / 97 away

creates per match

Celtic
2.71
Ross County
0.88

allows per match

Celtic
0.57
Ross County
1.78

finishing

Celtic+0.00on par
Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Celtic ↓

Ross County →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Celtic or draw
90%
Celtic or Ross County
82%
Draw or Ross County
28%

Winning margin

Celtic wins by 2+
48%
Ross County wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Celtic 1+ goals
89%
Celtic 2+ goals
65%
Celtic 3+ goals
39%
Ross County 1+ goals
51%
Ross County 2+ goals
16%
Ross County 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Celtic (draw refunded)
87%
Ross County (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Celtic at home — creates 2.71, concedes 0.57 · 134 matches

Ross County away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.78 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Celtic attack 2.71 + Ross County defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 2.25

Ross County attack 0.88 + Celtic defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Celtic scores more
72%
level
18%
Ross County scores more
10%

Celtic at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premiership: Celtic 1–0 Ross County

Celtic beat Ross County 1-0 in Premiership on January 27, 2024.

The match was played at Celtic Park in Glasgow.