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Ross County vs Celtic — League Cup 2018

Ross County
Ross County
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Celtic
Celtic
8/31/2022League CupLeague Cup · 2nd RoundGlobal Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Ross County38%
×Draw23%
Celtic40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ross County
1.71
Celtic
1.75

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 17 home / 12 away

creates per match

Ross County
2.59
Celtic
2.50

allows per match

Ross County
1.00
Celtic
0.83

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par
Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

Celtic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Ross County or draw
60%
Ross County or Celtic
77%
Draw or Celtic
62%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+
19%
Celtic wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals
82%
Ross County 2+ goals
51%
Ross County 3+ goals
24%
Celtic 1+ goals
83%
Celtic 2+ goals
52%
Celtic 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)
49%
Celtic (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Celtic away — creates 2.50, concedes 0.83 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 2.59 + Celtic defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.71

Celtic attack 2.50 + Ross County defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ross County scores more
38%
level
23%
Celtic scores more
40%

Celtic at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Celtic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Ross County 1–4 Celtic

Celtic beat Ross County 4-1 in League Cup on August 31, 2022.

The match was played at Global Energy Stadium in Dingwall.