Ross County 2–1 Arbroath: Result & Stats

Ross County

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arbroath

10/13/2020

League Cup · Group Stage - 5Global Energy Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Ross County60%

×Draw20%

Arbroath19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ross CountyExpected goals in this matchArbroath

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.14

1.13

Ross County

2.14

Arbroath

1.13

Ross County creates 89% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 16 away

2.59

creates per match

1.25

1.00

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Ross County

2.59

Arbroath

1.25

allows per match

Ross County

1.00

Arbroath

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ross County+0.00on par

Arbroath+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ross County ↓

Arbroath →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Ross County or draw

81%

Ross County or Arbroath

80%

Draw or Arbroath

40%

Winning margin

Ross County wins by 2+

37%

Arbroath wins by 2+

Team goals

Ross County 1+ goals

88%

Ross County 2+ goals

63%

Ross County 3+ goals

36%

Arbroath 1+ goals

68%

Arbroath 2+ goals

31%

Arbroath 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ross County (draw refunded)

76%

Arbroath (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ross County at home — creates 2.59, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Arbroath away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ross County attack 2.59 + Arbroath defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.14

Arbroath attack 1.25 + Ross County defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Ross County scores more

60%

level

20%

Arbroath scores more

19%

Ross County at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Ross County will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff