Arbroath 4–1 Ross County: Result & Stats

Arbroath

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Ross County

7/25/2018

League Cup · Group Stage - 7Gayfield Park (Arbroath)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arbroath43%

×Draw23%

Ross County35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArbroathExpected goals in this matchRoss County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.59

Arbroath

1.79

Ross County

1.59

Arbroath creates 13% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 18 away

2.47

creates per match

2.11

1.07

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Arbroath

2.47

Ross County

2.11

allows per match

Arbroath

1.07

Ross County

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arbroath+0.00on par

Ross County+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arbroath ↓

Ross County →

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Arbroath or draw

65%

Arbroath or Ross County

77%

Draw or Ross County

57%

Winning margin

Arbroath wins by 2+

23%

Ross County wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Arbroath 1+ goals

83%

Arbroath 2+ goals

53%

Arbroath 3+ goals

26%

Ross County 1+ goals

80%

Ross County 2+ goals

47%

Ross County 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Arbroath (draw refunded)

55%

Ross County (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arbroath at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.07 · 15 matches

Ross County away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arbroath attack 2.47 + Ross County defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.79

Ross County attack 2.11 + Arbroath defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arbroath scores more

43%

level

23%

Ross County scores more

35%

Arbroath at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arbroath will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff