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Rospak vs Nsuopun Fidelity — Division One League 2025

Rospak
Rospak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
1/9/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 15

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak51%
×Draw29%
Nsuopun Fidelity20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rospak
1.30
Nsuopun Fidelity
0.70

Rospak creates 86% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rospak
1.60
Nsuopun Fidelity
0.73

allows per match

Rospak
0.67
Nsuopun Fidelity
1.00

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par
Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Nsuopun Fidelity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rospak or draw
80%
Rospak or Nsuopun Fidelity
71%
Draw or Nsuopun Fidelity
49%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+
24%
Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals
73%
Rospak 2+ goals
37%
Rospak 3+ goals
14%
Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
50%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
16%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)
72%
Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Nsuopun Fidelity away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 0.73 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rospak scores more
51%
level
29%
Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
20%

Rospak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Rospak 2–1 Nsuopun Fidelity

Rospak beat Nsuopun Fidelity 2-1 in Division One League on January 9, 2026.