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Nsuopun Fidelity vs Rospak — Division One League 2025

Nsuopun Fidelity
Nsuopun Fidelity
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rospak
Rospak
5/17/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 30

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Nsuopun Fidelity54%
×Draw24%
Rospak23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.73
Rospak
1.03

Nsuopun Fidelity creates 68% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
1.93
Rospak
1.20

allows per match

Nsuopun Fidelity
0.87
Rospak
1.53

finishing

Nsuopun Fidelity+0.00on par
Rospak+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsuopun Fidelity ↓

Rospak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Nsuopun Fidelity or draw
77%
Nsuopun Fidelity or Rospak
76%
Draw or Rospak
46%

Winning margin

Nsuopun Fidelity wins by 2+
30%
Rospak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Nsuopun Fidelity 1+ goals
82%
Nsuopun Fidelity 2+ goals
52%
Nsuopun Fidelity 3+ goals
25%
Rospak 1+ goals
64%
Rospak 2+ goals
28%
Rospak 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Nsuopun Fidelity (draw refunded)
70%
Rospak (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsuopun Fidelity at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Rospak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsuopun Fidelity attack 1.93 + Rospak defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rospak attack 1.20 + Nsuopun Fidelity defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Nsuopun Fidelity scores more
54%
level
24%
Rospak scores more
23%

Nsuopun Fidelity at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Nsuopun Fidelity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Nsuopun Fidelity 3–1 Rospak

Nsuopun Fidelity beat Rospak 3-1 in Division One League on May 17, 2026.