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Rospak vs Eleven Wise — Division One League 2025

Rospak
Rospak
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Eleven Wise
Eleven Wise
12/20/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 12

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak75%
×Draw19%
Eleven Wise7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rospak
1.94
Eleven Wise
0.40

Rospak creates 385% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rospak
1.60
Eleven Wise
0.13

allows per match

Rospak
0.67
Eleven Wise
2.27

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par
Eleven Wise+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Eleven Wise →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–18%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–018%
2–17%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rospak or draw
93%
Rospak or Eleven Wise
81%
Draw or Eleven Wise
25%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+
47%
Eleven Wise wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals
86%
Rospak 2+ goals
58%
Rospak 3+ goals
30%
Eleven Wise 1+ goals
33%
Eleven Wise 2+ goals
6%
Eleven Wise 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)
92%
Eleven Wise (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Eleven Wise away — creates 0.13, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Eleven Wise defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.94

Eleven Wise attack 0.13 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Rospak scores more
75%
level
19%
Eleven Wise scores more
7%

Rospak at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rospak vs Eleven Wise

Rospak beat Eleven Wise 4-0 in Division One League on December 20, 2025.