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Eleven Wise vs Rospak — Division One League 2025

Eleven Wise
Eleven Wise
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Rospak
Rospak
4/25/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Eleven Wise44%
×Draw28%
Rospak28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Eleven Wise
1.33
Rospak
1.00

Eleven Wise creates 33% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Eleven Wise
1.13
Rospak
1.20

allows per match

Eleven Wise
0.80
Rospak
1.53

finishing

Eleven Wise+0.00on par
Rospak+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Eleven Wise ↓

Rospak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Eleven Wise or draw
72%
Eleven Wise or Rospak
72%
Draw or Rospak
56%

Winning margin

Eleven Wise wins by 2+
21%
Rospak wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Eleven Wise 1+ goals
74%
Eleven Wise 2+ goals
38%
Eleven Wise 3+ goals
15%
Rospak 1+ goals
63%
Rospak 2+ goals
26%
Rospak 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Eleven Wise (draw refunded)
61%
Rospak (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Eleven Wise at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

Rospak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Eleven Wise attack 1.13 + Rospak defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rospak attack 1.20 + Eleven Wise defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Eleven Wise scores more
44%
level
28%
Rospak scores more
28%

Eleven Wise at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Eleven Wise will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Eleven Wise 3–2 Rospak

Eleven Wise beat Rospak 3-2 in Division One League on April 25, 2026.