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Rospak vs Ebusua Dwarfs — Division One League 2025

Rospak
Rospak
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
11/23/2025Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 8

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rospak47%
×Draw30%
Ebusua Dwarfs23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rospak
1.24
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.77

Rospak creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Rospak
1.60
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

allows per match

Rospak
0.67
Ebusua Dwarfs
0.87

finishing

Rospak+0.00on par
Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rospak ↓

Ebusua Dwarfs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Rospak or draw
77%
Rospak or Ebusua Dwarfs
70%
Draw or Ebusua Dwarfs
53%

Winning margin

Rospak wins by 2+
21%
Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Rospak 1+ goals
71%
Rospak 2+ goals
35%
Rospak 3+ goals
13%
Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
54%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
18%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Rospak (draw refunded)
67%
Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rospak at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Ebusua Dwarfs away — creates 0.87, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rospak attack 1.60 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.24

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 0.87 + Rospak defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rospak scores more
47%
level
30%
Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
23%

Rospak at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rospak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division One League: Rospak 2–3 Ebusua Dwarfs

Ebusua Dwarfs beat Rospak 3-2 in Division One League on November 23, 2025.