Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ebusua Dwarfs vs Rospak — Division One League 2025

Ebusua Dwarfs
Ebusua Dwarfs
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rospak
Rospak
3/22/2026Division One LeagueDivision One League · Round 23

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ebusua Dwarfs53%
×Draw25%
Rospak22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.60
Rospak
0.94

Ebusua Dwarfs creates 70% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
1.67
Rospak
1.20

allows per match

Ebusua Dwarfs
0.67
Rospak
1.53

finishing

Ebusua Dwarfs+0.00on par
Rospak+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebusua Dwarfs ↓

Rospak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ebusua Dwarfs or draw
78%
Ebusua Dwarfs or Rospak
75%
Draw or Rospak
47%

Winning margin

Ebusua Dwarfs wins by 2+
28%
Rospak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Ebusua Dwarfs 1+ goals
80%
Ebusua Dwarfs 2+ goals
47%
Ebusua Dwarfs 3+ goals
22%
Rospak 1+ goals
61%
Rospak 2+ goals
24%
Rospak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ebusua Dwarfs (draw refunded)
70%
Rospak (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebusua Dwarfs at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 15 matches

Rospak away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.53 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebusua Dwarfs attack 1.67 + Rospak defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rospak attack 1.20 + Ebusua Dwarfs defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ebusua Dwarfs scores more
53%
level
25%
Rospak scores more
22%

Ebusua Dwarfs at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ebusua Dwarfs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebusua Dwarfs vs Rospak

Ebusua Dwarfs and Rospak drew 1-1 in Division One League on March 22, 2026.