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Roskilde vs Nykobing FC — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
FT
5 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
5/31/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 8Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Roskilde57%
×Draw21%
Nykobing FC21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
2.07
Nykobing FC
1.19

Roskilde creates 74% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 32 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
Nykobing FC
1.13

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
Nykobing FC
2.16

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
79%
Roskilde or Nykobing FC
79%
Draw or Nykobing FC
43%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
35%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
87%
Roskilde 2+ goals
61%
Roskilde 3+ goals
34%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
70%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
33%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
73%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.13, concedes 2.16 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + Nykobing FC defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 2.07

Nykobing FC attack 1.13 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Roskilde scores more
57%
level
21%
Nykobing FC scores more
21%

Roskilde at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Roskilde 5–1 Nykobing FC

Roskilde beat Nykobing FC 5-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on May 31, 2024.

The match was played at Roskilde Idrætspark in Roskilde.