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Roskilde vs Nykobing FC — 1. Division 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Nykobing FC
Nykobing FC
6/25/20201. Division1. Division · Round 26Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Roskilde45%
×Draw23%
Nykobing FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.72
Nykobing FC
1.42

Roskilde creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 66 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.50
Nykobing FC
1.18

allows per match

Roskilde
1.67
Nykobing FC
1.94

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
Nykobing FC+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Nykobing FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
68%
Roskilde or Nykobing FC
77%
Draw or Nykobing FC
55%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
24%
Nykobing FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
82%
Roskilde 2+ goals
51%
Roskilde 3+ goals
25%
Nykobing FC 1+ goals
76%
Nykobing FC 2+ goals
41%
Nykobing FC 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
58%
Nykobing FC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 48 matches

Nykobing FC away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.50 + Nykobing FC defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.72

Nykobing FC attack 1.18 + Roskilde defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Roskilde scores more
45%
level
23%
Nykobing FC scores more
32%

Roskilde at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1. Division: Roskilde 2–2 Nykobing FC

Roskilde and Nykobing FC drew 2-2 in 1. Division on June 25, 2020.

The match was played at Roskilde Idrætspark in Roskilde.