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Roskilde vs Kolding IF — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Roskilde
Roskilde
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Kolding IF
Kolding IF
8/20/20222nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Round 3Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Roskilde36%
×Draw25%
Kolding IF39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
1.42
Kolding IF
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

creates per match

Roskilde
1.98
Kolding IF
1.73

allows per match

Roskilde
1.26
Kolding IF
0.85

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
Kolding IF+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Kolding IF →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
61%
Roskilde or Kolding IF
75%
Draw or Kolding IF
64%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
17%
Kolding IF wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
76%
Roskilde 2+ goals
41%
Roskilde 3+ goals
17%
Kolding IF 1+ goals
78%
Kolding IF 2+ goals
44%
Kolding IF 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
48%
Kolding IF (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Kolding IF away — creates 1.73, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.42

Kolding IF attack 1.73 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Roskilde scores more
36%
level
25%
Kolding IF scores more
39%

Kolding IF at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Roskilde 0–0 Kolding IF

Roskilde and Kolding IF drew 0-0 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on August 20, 2022.

The match was played at Roskilde Idrætspark in Roskilde.