Kolding IF 2–1 Roskilde: Result & Stats

Kolding IF

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Roskilde

P. Ngongo 72'

Y. Dieudonne 17'

M. Etim 81'

3/26/2023

2nd Division - Group 1 · Round 19Autocentralen Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kolding IF43%

×Draw26%

Roskilde30%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kolding IFExpected goals in this matchRoskilde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.14

Kolding IF

1.41

Roskilde

1.14

Kolding IF creates 24% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

1.48

creates per match

1.43

0.85

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kolding IF

1.48

Roskilde

1.43

allows per match

Kolding IF

0.85

Roskilde

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kolding IF+0.00on par

Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kolding IF ↓

Roskilde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kolding IF or draw

70%

Kolding IF or Roskilde

74%

Draw or Roskilde

57%

Winning margin

Kolding IF wins by 2+

21%

Roskilde wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Kolding IF 1+ goals

76%

Kolding IF 2+ goals

41%

Kolding IF 3+ goals

17%

Roskilde 1+ goals

68%

Roskilde 2+ goals

32%

Roskilde 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kolding IF (draw refunded)

59%

Roskilde (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kolding IF at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.85 · 33 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kolding IF attack 1.48 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.41

Roskilde attack 1.43 + Kolding IF defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kolding IF scores more

43%

level

26%

Roskilde scores more

30%

Kolding IF at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kolding IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Y. Dieudonne

72'

P. Ngongo

81'

M. Etim

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff