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Roskilde vs KFUM Roskilde — 3. Division 2021

Roskilde
Roskilde
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
11/19/20213. Division3. Division · Round 17Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Roskilde73%
×Draw16%
KFUM Roskilde12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Roskilde
2.66
KFUM Roskilde
0.97

Roskilde creates 174% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Roskilde
3.44
KFUM Roskilde
0.94

allows per match

Roskilde
1.00
KFUM Roskilde
1.88

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par
KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

KFUM Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw
88%
Roskilde or KFUM Roskilde
84%
Draw or KFUM Roskilde
27%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+
51%
KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals
93%
Roskilde 2+ goals
74%
Roskilde 3+ goals
49%
KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
62%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
25%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)
86%
KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 3.44, concedes 1.00 · 16 matches

KFUM Roskilde away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.88 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 3.44 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.66

KFUM Roskilde attack 0.94 + Roskilde defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Roskilde scores more
73%
level
16%
KFUM Roskilde scores more
12%

Roskilde at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Roskilde vs KFUM Roskilde

Roskilde and KFUM Roskilde drew 2-2 in 3. Division on November 19, 2021.

The match was played at Roskilde Idrætspark in Roskilde.