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KFUM Roskilde vs Roskilde — 3. Division 2021

KFUM Roskilde
KFUM Roskilde
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Roskilde
Roskilde
10/9/20213. Division3. Division · Round 11Lillevang Idrætscenter

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

KFUM Roskilde27%
×Draw22%
Roskilde52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KFUM Roskilde
1.41
Roskilde
2.04

Roskilde creates 45% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.44
Roskilde
2.38

allows per match

KFUM Roskilde
1.69
Roskilde
1.38

finishing

KFUM Roskilde+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KFUM Roskilde ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

KFUM Roskilde or draw
48%
KFUM Roskilde or Roskilde
78%
Draw or Roskilde
73%

Winning margin

KFUM Roskilde wins by 2+
12%
Roskilde wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

KFUM Roskilde 1+ goals
76%
KFUM Roskilde 2+ goals
41%
KFUM Roskilde 3+ goals
17%
Roskilde 1+ goals
87%
Roskilde 2+ goals
60%
Roskilde 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

KFUM Roskilde (draw refunded)
34%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KFUM Roskilde at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.69 · 16 matches

Roskilde away — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KFUM Roskilde attack 1.44 + Roskilde defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.41

Roskilde attack 2.38 + KFUM Roskilde defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

KFUM Roskilde scores more
27%
level
22%
Roskilde scores more
52%

Roskilde at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. Division: KFUM Roskilde 1–1 Roskilde

KFUM Roskilde and Roskilde drew 1-1 in 3. Division on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Lillevang Idrætscenter in Roskilde.