Roskilde 6–2 Aarhus Fremad: Result & Stats

Roskilde

FT

6 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Aarhus Fremad

F. Engqvist 88'

M. Freitag 79', 50'

C. Allen 42'

D. Haarbo 37' (OG)

M. Winkel 3'

W. Stage 83'

J. Singh 30'

5/3/2024

2nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 4Roskilde Idrætspark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Roskilde40%

×Draw24%

Aarhus Fremad35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RoskildeExpected goals in this matchAarhus Fremad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.44

Roskilde

1.56

Aarhus Fremad

1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 46 home / 81 away

1.98

creates per match

1.63

1.26

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Roskilde

1.98

Aarhus Fremad

1.63

allows per match

Roskilde

1.26

Aarhus Fremad

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Roskilde+0.00on par

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Roskilde ↓

Aarhus Fremad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Roskilde or draw

65%

Roskilde or Aarhus Fremad

76%

Draw or Aarhus Fremad

60%

Winning margin

Roskilde wins by 2+

20%

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Roskilde 1+ goals

79%

Roskilde 2+ goals

46%

Roskilde 3+ goals

21%

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals

76%

Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals

42%

Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Roskilde (draw refunded)

53%

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Roskilde at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.26 · 46 matches

Aarhus Fremad away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.15 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Roskilde attack 1.98 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.56

Aarhus Fremad attack 1.63 + Roskilde defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Roskilde scores more

40%

level

24%

Aarhus Fremad scores more

35%

Roskilde at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Roskilde will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

M. Winkel

30'

J. Singh

37'

D. HaarboOwn goal

42'

C. Allen

50'

M. Freitag

79'

M. Freitag

83'

W. Stage

88'

F. Engqvist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff