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Aarhus Fremad vs Roskilde — 2nd Division - Group 1 2018

Aarhus Fremad
Aarhus Fremad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Roskilde
Roskilde
C. Nielsen 55'
M. Skott 78'
E. Nielsen 14'
6/15/20242nd Division - Group 12nd Division - Group 1 · Promotion Group - 10Riisvangen Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Aarhus Fremad47%
×Draw24%
Roskilde29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aarhus Fremad
1.67
Roskilde
1.25

Aarhus Fremad creates 34% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 46 away

creates per match

Aarhus Fremad
2.00
Roskilde
1.43

allows per match

Aarhus Fremad
1.08
Roskilde
1.33

finishing

Aarhus Fremad+0.00on par
Roskilde+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aarhus Fremad ↓

Roskilde →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Aarhus Fremad or draw
71%
Aarhus Fremad or Roskilde
76%
Draw or Roskilde
53%

Winning margin

Aarhus Fremad wins by 2+
25%
Roskilde wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Aarhus Fremad 1+ goals
81%
Aarhus Fremad 2+ goals
50%
Aarhus Fremad 3+ goals
23%
Roskilde 1+ goals
71%
Roskilde 2+ goals
36%
Roskilde 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aarhus Fremad (draw refunded)
62%
Roskilde (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aarhus Fremad at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.08 · 79 matches

Roskilde away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.33 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aarhus Fremad attack 2.00 + Roskilde defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.67

Roskilde attack 1.43 + Aarhus Fremad defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Aarhus Fremad scores more
47%
level
24%
Roskilde scores more
29%

Aarhus Fremad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Aarhus Fremad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
E. Nielsen
55'
C. Nielsen
78'
M. Skott

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2nd Division - Group 1: Aarhus Fremad 1–2 Roskilde

Roskilde beat Aarhus Fremad 2-1 in 2nd Division - Group 1 on June 15, 2024.

Goals: E. Nielsen (14'), C. Nielsen (55'), M. Skott (78').

The match was played at Riisvangen Stadion in Århus.