Rosengård W 2–1 Kristianstad W: Result & Stats

Rosengård W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Kristianstad W

R. Knaak 77', 20'

T. Sandén 86'

10/4/2024

Damallsvenskan · Round 22Malmö IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Rosengård W52%

×Draw22%

Kristianstad W26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosengård WExpected goals in this matchKristianstad W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

1.37

Rosengård W

2.02

Kristianstad W

1.37

Rosengård W creates 47% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

2.64

creates per match

1.78

0.96

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Rosengård W

2.64

Kristianstad W

1.78

allows per match

Rosengård W

0.96

Kristianstad W

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosengård W+0.00on par

Kristianstad W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård W ↓

Kristianstad W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Rosengård W or draw

74%

Rosengård W or Kristianstad W

78%

Draw or Kristianstad W

48%

Winning margin

Rosengård W wins by 2+

31%

Kristianstad W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rosengård W 1+ goals

87%

Rosengård W 2+ goals

60%

Rosengård W 3+ goals

33%

Kristianstad W 1+ goals

75%

Kristianstad W 2+ goals

40%

Kristianstad W 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rosengård W (draw refunded)

67%

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård W at home — creates 2.64, concedes 0.96 · 80 matches

Kristianstad W away — creates 1.78, concedes 1.39 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård W attack 2.64 + Kristianstad W defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 2.02

Kristianstad W attack 1.78 + Rosengård W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rosengård W scores more

52%

level

22%

Kristianstad W scores more

26%

Rosengård W at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

R. Knaak

77'

R. Knaak

78'

T. Sandén← F. Widén

84'

M. Janzen← R. Siemsen

84'

E. Broddheimer← A. Nilsson

84'

J. Harrysson← T. Persson

86'

T. Sandén

90'

A. Hartikainen← E. Larsson

Rosengård3-4-3

Kristianstad4-2-3-1

9

▼

Siemsen

7

Tryggvadó

8

▼

Nilsson

18

▼

Widén

14

▼

6

4

13

2

20

33

1

8

⚽2

3

11

6

10

17

15

22

16

14

▼

Larsson

Manager: J. Kjetselberg

90'▲A. Hartikainen←▼E. Larsson

Rosengård W substitutes

5Hartikainen24Andersson7Sprung44Cronquist46Stojanovska50Almqvist12Lynn

Manager: J. Almgren

78'▲T. Sandén←▼F. Widén

84'▲M. Janzen←▼R. Siemsen

84'▲E. Broddheimer←▼A. Nilsson

84'▲J. Harrysson←▼T. Persson

Kristianstad W substitutes

29Sandén3Janzen25Broddheimer27Harrysson1Maron19Pilblad23Andersson

Damallsvenskan: Rosengård W 2–1 Kristianstad W

Rosengård W beat Kristianstad W 2-1 in Damallsvenskan on October 4, 2024.

Goals: R. Knaak (20', 77'), T. Sandén (86').

The match was played at Malmö IP in Malmö.

Rosengård W vs Kristianstad W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Damallsvenskan: Rosengård W 2–1 Kristianstad W