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Kristianstad W vs Rosengård W — Damallsvenskan 2020

Kristianstad W
Kristianstad W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Rosengård W
Rosengård W
A. Sayer 49'
R. Öling 43'
O. Holdt 41'
M. Tanikawa 39'
4/21/2024DamallsvenskanDamallsvenskan · Round 2Kristianstads Fotbollsarena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kristianstad W33%
×Draw23%
Rosengård W44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kristianstad W
1.45
Rosengård W
1.71

Rosengård W creates 18% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Kristianstad W
2.01
Rosengård W
2.27

allows per match

Kristianstad W
1.14
Rosengård W
0.90

finishing

Kristianstad W+0.00on par
Rosengård W+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristianstad W ↓

Rosengård W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kristianstad W or draw
56%
Kristianstad W or Rosengård W
77%
Draw or Rosengård W
67%

Winning margin

Kristianstad W wins by 2+
15%
Rosengård W wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Kristianstad W 1+ goals
77%
Kristianstad W 2+ goals
42%
Kristianstad W 3+ goals
18%
Rosengård W 1+ goals
82%
Rosengård W 2+ goals
51%
Rosengård W 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Kristianstad W (draw refunded)
43%
Rosengård W (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristianstad W at home — creates 2.01, concedes 1.14 · 80 matches

Rosengård W away — creates 2.27, concedes 0.90 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristianstad W attack 2.01 + Rosengård W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rosengård W attack 2.27 + Kristianstad W defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kristianstad W scores more
33%
level
23%
Rosengård W scores more
44%

Rosengård W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Rosengård W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
M. TanikawaRosengård WRosengård W · M
8.9

Match Events

39'
M. Tanikawa
41'
O. Holdt
43'
R. Öling
49'
A. Sayer
69'
T. Persson← G. Árnadóttir
76'
T. Sandén← A. Sayer
78'
J. Agbor Tataw Cronquist← E. Jansson
80'
E. Larsson← S. Bredgaard
90'
S. Reidy← J. Harrysson
90'
E. Broddheimer← A. Nilsson

Possession

51%Kristianstad

Shots

9Kristianstad

Pass accuracy

49%Kristianstad

Statistics

KristianstadRosengård
Overview
51%Possession49%
9Total Shots22
0.84Expected Goals (xG)2.10
6Corners14
8Fouls8
Shots
9Total Shots22
4On Target8
1Off Target5
4Blocked8
6Inside Box15
3Outside Box7
Passing
51%Possession49%
422Total Passes397
320Accurate Passes314
76%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
Discipline
8Fouls8
0Yellow Cards0
0Red Cards0
2Offsides4

Damallsvenskan: Kristianstad W 1–3 Rosengård W

Rosengård W beat Kristianstad W 3-1 in Damallsvenskan on April 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Tanikawa (39'), O. Holdt (41'), R. Öling (43'), A. Sayer (49').

Kristianstad W controlled possession (51%) and registered 9 shots to 22.

The match was played at Kristianstads Fotbollsarena in Kristianstad.