Rosengård 0–0 Ariana: Result & Stats

Rosengård

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ariana

9/13/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 22Rosengårds IP

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Rosengård43%

×Draw26%

Ariana31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosengårdExpected goals in this matchAriana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.15

Rosengård

1.41

Ariana

1.15

Rosengård creates 23% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 45 away

1.18

creates per match

1.11

1.18

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Rosengård

1.18

Ariana

1.11

allows per match

Rosengård

1.18

Ariana

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosengård+0.00on par

Ariana+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosengård ↓

Ariana →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rosengård or draw

69%

Rosengård or Ariana

74%

Draw or Ariana

57%

Winning margin

Rosengård wins by 2+

20%

Ariana wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rosengård 1+ goals

76%

Rosengård 2+ goals

41%

Rosengård 3+ goals

17%

Ariana 1+ goals

68%

Ariana 2+ goals

32%

Ariana 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rosengård (draw refunded)

58%

Ariana (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosengård at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.18 · 38 matches

Ariana away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosengård attack 1.18 + Ariana defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ariana attack 1.11 + Rosengård defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rosengård scores more

43%

level

26%

Ariana scores more

31%

Rosengård at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rosengård will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

A. Sabriye

49'

E. Igbonekwu

63'

T. Tsetskhladze

65'

G. Backaliden← G. Stagova

67'

L. Minter Wettergren← U. Ibrahim

73'

A. Davoudi-Kia← M. Owaid

76'

O. Khalid← A. Reuterskiöld

80'

A. Olofsson← D. Kosik Sulaiman

88'

Saber Azizi← E. Mehmed

89'

A. Olofsson

Rosengård

Ariana

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: H. Kabil

65'▲G. Backaliden←▼G. Stagova

73'▲A. Davoudi-Kia←▼M. Owaid

80'▲A. Olofsson←▼D. Kosik Sulaiman

Rosengård substitutes

BackalidenDavoudi-KiaOlofssonAvdicAljukicAlmFrithzell

Manager: Y. Aras

67'▲L. Minter Wettergren←▼U. Ibrahim

76'▲O. Khalid←▼A. Reuterskiöld

88'▲Saber Azizi←▼E. Mehmed

Ariana substitutes

WettergrenKhalidAziziSharzaZekovicAmadiEgly

Match Recap: Rosengård vs Ariana

Rosengård and Ariana drew 0-0 in Ettan - Södra on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Rosengårds IP in Malmö.

Rosengård vs Ariana — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Rosengård vs Ariana