Ariana 2–2 Rosengård: Result & Stats

Ariana

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Rosengård

A. Reinholdsson 49'

Ahmed Awad 39'

E. Karimi 18', 8'

5/8/2024

Ettan - Södra · Södra - 7Malmö Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Ariana47%

×Draw24%

Rosengård29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArianaExpected goals in this matchRosengård

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.27

Ariana

1.69

Rosengård

1.27

Ariana creates 33% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 40 away

1.80

creates per match

1.35

1.20

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Ariana

1.80

Rosengård

1.35

allows per match

Ariana

1.20

Rosengård

1.57

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ariana+0.00on par

Rosengård+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ariana ↓

Rosengård →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Ariana or draw

71%

Ariana or Rosengård

76%

Draw or Rosengård

53%

Winning margin

Ariana wins by 2+

25%

Rosengård wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Ariana 1+ goals

82%

Ariana 2+ goals

50%

Ariana 3+ goals

24%

Rosengård 1+ goals

72%

Rosengård 2+ goals

36%

Rosengård 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Ariana (draw refunded)

62%

Rosengård (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ariana at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.20 · 45 matches

Rosengård away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.57 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ariana attack 1.80 + Rosengård defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Rosengård attack 1.35 + Ariana defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Ariana scores more

47%

level

24%

Rosengård scores more

29%

Ariana at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ariana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

E. Karimi

18'

E. Karimi

39'

Ahmed Awad

46'

A. Sabriye← S. Arnshed

49'

A. Reinholdsson

67'

R. Lundström← U. Ibrahim

68'

E. Igbonekwu← H. Abdulla

71'

A. Bjurnemark

73'

A. Reuterskiöld← O. Khalid

73'

D. Mesic← A. Reinholdsson

77'

D. Alm← I. Magnusson

88'

G. Bunjaku← E. Mehmed

88'

D. Kosik Sulaiman← A. Bbakka

90+1'

E. Igbonekwu

Ariana

Rosengård

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Reinholds

▼

Khalid

Manager: F. Sahan

46'▲A. Sabriye←▼S. Arnshed

67'▲R. Lundström←▼U. Ibrahim

73'▲A. Reuterskiöld←▼O. Khalid

73'▲D. Mesic←▼A. Reinholdsson

88'▲G. Bunjaku←▼E. Mehmed

Ariana substitutes

SabriyeLundströmReuterskiöldMesicBunjakuAmadiNilsson

Manager: H. Kabil

68'▲E. Igbonekwu←▼H. Abdulla

77'▲D. Alm←▼I. Magnusson

88'▲D. Kosik Sulaiman←▼A. Bbakka

Rosengård substitutes

IgbonekwuAlmSulaimanStagovaAnderssonJaflehFröjdh

Match Recap: Ariana vs Rosengård

Ariana and Rosengård drew 2-2 in Ettan - Södra on May 8, 2024.

Goals: E. Karimi (8', 18'), Ahmed Awad (39'), A. Reinholdsson (49').

The match was played at Malmö Stadion in Malmö.

Ariana vs Rosengård — Ettan - Södra 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Ariana vs Rosengård