Rosenborg W 2–1 Klepp W: Result & Stats

Rosenborg W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Klepp W

L. Karlseng Utland 81'

S. Fornes 45'

H. Broch 79'

6/30/2021

Toppserien · Round 6Koteng Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Rosenborg W86%

×Draw11%

Klepp W4%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rosenborg WExpected goals in this matchKlepp W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.79

0.43

Rosenborg W

2.79

Klepp W

0.43

Rosenborg W creates 549% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 9 away

2.13

creates per match

0.22

0.65

allows per match

3.44

creates per match

Rosenborg W

2.13

Klepp W

0.22

allows per match

Rosenborg W

0.65

Klepp W

3.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Klepp W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg W ↓

Klepp W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–20%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–15%

1–21%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–015%

3–16%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–010%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rosenborg W or draw

96%

Rosenborg W or Klepp W

89%

Draw or Klepp W

14%

Winning margin

Rosenborg W wins by 2+

66%

Klepp W wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Rosenborg W 1+ goals

94%

Rosenborg W 2+ goals

76%

Rosenborg W 3+ goals

52%

Klepp W 1+ goals

35%

Klepp W 2+ goals

7%

Klepp W 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)

96%

Klepp W (draw refunded)

4%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg W at home — creates 2.13, concedes 0.65 · 69 matches

Klepp W away — creates 0.22, concedes 3.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg W attack 2.13 + Klepp W defence 3.44 → ÷2 → 2.79

Klepp W attack 0.22 + Rosenborg W defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 86%?"

Rosenborg W scores more

86%

level

11%

Klepp W scores more

4%

Rosenborg W at 86% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 86% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

S. Fornes

46'

S. Bjørnsen← K. Karlsen

62'

C. Andreassen← E. Sørum

62'

L. Karlseng Utland← S. Fornes

62'

K. Leine← M. Rogde

67'

T. Ellingsen← E. Greening

73'

I. Nødland← M. Andresen

77'

78'

79'

81'

85'

S. Vistnes← K. Maksuti

85'

I. Tveit← I. Skretting

Rosenborg

Klepp

1

Larsen

12

⚽

Broch

17

▼

15

22

14

28

24

▼

Skretting

8

▼

Andresen

7

▼

Maksuti

21

▼

Karlsen

1

Rulyte

8

▼

3

19

4

21

6

▼

Sørum

41

Blakstad

7

Joramo

16

▼

Rogde

10

⚽

▼

Fornes

Manager: S. Lein

62'▲C. Andreassen←▼E. Sørum

62'▲L. Karlseng Utland←▼S. Fornes

62'▲K. Leine←▼M. Rogde

78'▲E. Lein←▼M. Olsvik

Rosenborg W substitutes

5Andreassen27Utland2Leine88Lein11Døvle18Brønstad24Hofset28Sobczyk22Sneve

Manager: N. Loftus

46'▲S. Bjørnsen←▼K. Karlsen

67'▲T. Ellingsen←▼E. Greening

73'▲I. Nødland←▼M. Andresen

85'▲S. Vistnes←▼K. Maksuti

85'▲I. Tveit←▼I. Skretting

Klepp W substitutes

16Bjørnsen33Ellingsen18Nødland25Vistnes31Tveit41Kolnes43Pedersen