Klepp W 0–3 Rosenborg W: Result & Stats

Klepp W

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Rosenborg W

E. Sørum 62'

L. Karlseng Utland 40'

E. Joramo 38'

10/16/2021

Toppserien · Round 16Klepp Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Klepp W20%

×Draw21%

Rosenborg W60%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Klepp WExpected goals in this matchRosenborg W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

2.13

Klepp W

1.13

Rosenborg W

2.13

Rosenborg W creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 66 away

1.11

creates per match

1.83

2.44

allows per match

1.15

creates per match

Klepp W

1.11

Rosenborg W

1.83

allows per match

Klepp W

2.44

Rosenborg W

1.15

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Klepp W+0.00on par

Rosenborg W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Klepp W ↓

Rosenborg W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Klepp W or draw

40%

Klepp W or Rosenborg W

79%

Draw or Rosenborg W

80%

Winning margin

Klepp W wins by 2+

7%

Rosenborg W wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Klepp W 1+ goals

68%

Klepp W 2+ goals

31%

Klepp W 3+ goals

11%

Rosenborg W 1+ goals

88%

Rosenborg W 2+ goals

63%

Rosenborg W 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Klepp W (draw refunded)

25%

Rosenborg W (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Klepp W at home — creates 1.11, concedes 2.44 · 9 matches

Rosenborg W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.15 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Klepp W attack 1.11 + Rosenborg W defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rosenborg W attack 1.83 + Klepp W defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Klepp W scores more

20%

level

21%

Rosenborg W scores more

60%

Rosenborg W at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rosenborg W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

E. Joramo

40'

L. Karlseng Utland

46'

J. Austdal← I. Skretting

62'

E. Sørum

66'

S. Fornes← L. Karlseng Utland

66'

S. Hansen← M. Olsvik

67'

K. Maksuti← K. Karlsen

75'

C. Nergård← S. Brønstad

75'

E. Lein← S. Hansen

79'

S. Døvle← E. Joramo

82'

S. Vistnes← I. Nødland

Klepp

Rosenborg

12

Nøstmo

8

▼

3

2

19

4

20

▼

Hansen

6

⚽

Sørum

7

⚽

▼

Joramo

27

⚽

▼

Utland

18

▼

1

14

12

20

17

15

43

22

24

▼

Skretting

18

▼

Nødland

21

▼

Karlsen

Manager: O. Salvesen

46'▲J. Austdal←▼I. Skretting

67'▲K. Maksuti←▼K. Karlsen

82'▲S. Vistnes←▼I. Nødland

Klepp W substitutes

28Austdal7Maksuti25Vistnes8Andresen16Bjørnsen31Tveit41Kolnes44Mjelde51Fedøy

Manager: S. Lein

66'▲S. Fornes←▼L. Karlseng Utland

66'▲S. Hansen←▼M. Olsvik

75'▲C. Nergård←▼S. Brønstad

75'▲E. Lein←▼S. Hansen

79'▲S. Døvle←▼E. Joramo

Rosenborg W substitutes

10Fornes21Hansen15Nergård88Lein11Døvle1Rulyte5Andreassen41Blakstad