Rosenborg 4–3 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Rosenborg

FT

4 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Stromsgodset

M. Jensen 65'

N. Bendtner 50'

B. Meling 40'

I. Jebali 22'

André Hansen 84' (OG)

T. Nguen 59'

M. Abdellaoue 43'

8/26/2018

Eliteserien · Round 20Lerkendal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Rosenborg57%

×Draw22%

Stromsgodset22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.13

Rosenborg

1.97

Stromsgodset

1.13

Rosenborg creates 74% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 36 away

1.86

creates per match

1.06

1.20

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.86

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.20

Stromsgodset

2.08

-0.07on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Rosenborg-0.07on par

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

78%

Rosenborg or Stromsgodset

78%

Draw or Stromsgodset

43%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

33%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

86%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

58%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

31%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

68%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

31%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

73%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.20 · 38 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.86 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.97

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Rosenborg defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Rosenborg scores more

57%

level

22%

Stromsgodset scores more

22%

Rosenborg at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

N. Bendtner

Rosenborg · F

8.7

Match Events

22'

24'

40'

43'

46'

M. Lundemo← A. Konradsen

50'

N. Bendtner

59'

T. Nguen↳ E. Andersen

65'

M. Jensen↳ N. Bendtner

75'

A. Pellegrino← K. Tokstad

75'

J. Hove← H. Stengel

77'

Lars Saetra

84'

A. Søderlund← I. Jebali

84'

André HansenOwn goal

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgStromsgodset

Overview

47%Possession53%

22Total Shots16

8Corners7

6Fouls8

Shots

22Total Shots16

9On Target5

8Off Target6

5Blocked5

12Inside Box10

10Outside Box6

Passing

47%Possession53%

419Total Passes465

332Accurate Passes376

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls8

0Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

4Offsides1