Rosenborg 0–0 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Molde

4/27/2025

Eliteserien · Round 4Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Rosenborg46%

×Draw25%

Molde29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.22

Rosenborg

1.60

Molde

1.22

Rosenborg creates 31% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 7 away

1.87

creates per match

1.34

1.09

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.87

Molde

1.34

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.09

Molde

1.32

-0.17scores less than expected

finishing

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.17scores less

Molde-0.48scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

71%

Rosenborg or Molde

75%

Draw or Molde

54%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

24%

Molde wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

80%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

47%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

22%

Molde 1+ goals

70%

Molde 2+ goals

34%

Molde 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

61%

Molde (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.09 · 10 matches

Molde away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.32 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.87 + Molde defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.60

Molde attack 1.34 + Rosenborg defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosenborg scores more

46%

level

25%

Molde scores more

29%

Rosenborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Pereira

Rosenborg · D

7.9

Match Events

59'

H. Stenevik← E. Hestad

65'

E. Reitan← D. Islamovic

65'

O. Saeter← U. Jenssen

65'

N. Holm← M. Broholm

70'

J. Abdullai← M. Daehli

70'

M. Enggaard← V. Berisha

70'

74'

74'

81'

83'

84'

O. Selnaes← S. Vaananen

89'

Adrian Nilsen Pereira

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgMolde

Overview

58%Possession42%

11Total Shots3

1.04Expected Goals (xG)0.48

4Corners4

11Fouls15

Shots

11Total Shots3

3On Target0

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

8Inside Box2

3Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

565Total Passes405

474Accurate Passes314

84%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

0Offsides1

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Molde

Rosenborg and Molde drew 0-0 in Eliteserien on April 27, 2025.

Rosenborg controlled possession (58%) and registered 11 shots to 3.

The match was played at Lerkendal Stadion in Trondheim.

Rosenborg vs Molde — Eliteserien 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Rosenborg vs Molde