Rosenborg 2–1 Molde: Result & Stats | Eliteserien

Rosenborg

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Molde

E. Tagseth 90+2'

A. Pereira 50'

O. Brynhildsen 5'

9/1/2024

Eliteserien · Round 21Lerkendal Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Rosenborg46%

×Draw24%

Molde30%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RosenborgExpected goals in this matchMolde

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.32

Rosenborg

1.67

Molde

1.32

Rosenborg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 6 away

1.96

creates per match

1.49

1.16

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Rosenborg

1.96

Molde

1.49

allows per match

Rosenborg

1.16

Molde

1.37

-0.07on par

finishing

-0.49scores less than expected

finishing

Rosenborg-0.07on par

Molde-0.49scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rosenborg ↓

Molde →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rosenborg or draw

70%

Rosenborg or Molde

76%

Draw or Molde

54%

Winning margin

Rosenborg wins by 2+

24%

Molde wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rosenborg 1+ goals

81%

Rosenborg 2+ goals

50%

Rosenborg 3+ goals

23%

Molde 1+ goals

73%

Molde 2+ goals

38%

Molde 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Rosenborg (draw refunded)

60%

Molde (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rosenborg at home — creates 1.96, concedes 1.16 · 9 matches

Molde away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.37 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rosenborg attack 1.96 + Molde defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.67

Molde attack 1.49 + Rosenborg defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Rosenborg scores more

46%

level

24%

Molde scores more

30%

Rosenborg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Rosenborg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

19

A. Pereira

Rosenborg · D

8.5

Match Events

5'

O. Brynhildsen↳ F. Ihler

8'

Kristian Eriksen

31'

Noah Jean Holm

33'

Mathias Fjortoft Lovik

46'

E. Ceïde← S. Väänänen

50'

A. Pereira↳ E. Ceïde

62'

M. Linnes← M. Enggård

62'

M. Kaasa← F. Ihler

73'

O. Sæter← N. Holm

73'

Moustafa Zeidan← J. Reitan-Sunde

78'

N. Ødegård← H. Stenevik

78'

E. Hestad← E. Breivik

81'

Mikkel Konradsen Ceide

84'

Ole Christian Saeter

85'

A. Andersson← A. Pereira

90+5'

L. Račić← M. Broholm

90+1'

G. Nyheim← O. Brynhildsen

90+2'

E. Tagseth↳ O. Sæter

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

RosenborgMolde

Overview

71%Possession29%

16Total Shots5

1.26Expected Goals (xG)0.63

6Corners2

11Fouls9

Shots

16Total Shots5

6On Target1

4Off Target3

6Blocked1

10Inside Box3

6Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

603Total Passes245

516Accurate Passes136

86%Pass Accuracy56%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

11Fouls9

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0